Climate Variability And Cotton Farming: An Assessment In The Area Of Punjab, Pakistan

Abstract

Climate variability poses significant challenges to agricultural systems, impacting crop yields and overall food security. This study focuses on understanding the consequences of climate variability on cotton farming in Punjab, Pakistan. The primary objectives were to assess the individual and combined effects of temperature, precipitation, and pest dynamics on cotton yield.The research employed a comprehensive approach, utilizing a Structural Equations Model (SEM) to analyze the complex interrelationships among the variables. The model incorporated temperature as a key factor influencing crop growth, precipitation as a determinant of water availability, and pest dynamics as a crucial factor affecting overall crop health.Results from the SEM revealed a noteworthy negative influence of temperature on cotton yield, underscoring the vulnerability of cotton crops to heat stress. Conversely, pest dynamics exhibited a positive association with cotton yield, emphasizing the significance of effective pest management strategies in sustaining crop productivity. These findings have crucial implications for agricultural practices in Punjab. The implications extend beyond Punjab, offering lessons for regions facing similar agricultural challenges.

Keywords: Climate variability; Cotton farming; Structural Equations Model (SEM); Temperature; Pest dynamics; Agricultural resilience